貼圖、程式等,版主可任意修改或刪除,轉貼文章請多用連結,一天 (00:00-23:59) 請只開一個話題,請大家合作,謝謝。10/22/2018 13:18:00     意見庫存
 

外獨會意見交流

 

請教一個賭博的問題

發言人:BMIC, on Sep/20/2018    15:06:00 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 我跟朋友打賭, 賭輸要請人吃欣葉的晚餐, 結果我輸了, 我跟朋友說, 我給你一千塊, 你自己去吃

他很不高興說怎麼可以這樣?

我跟他說, 這樣我可以省下自己那份....(欣葉台菜兩人吃也沒多大吃頭)

這樣是不是很不上道? (朋友最後反消遣我, 他也不去吃, 就收下那一千元)
 

Record ID: 1537427160   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:BMIC, on Sep/20/2018    15:10:23 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 我的問題是

玩梭哈, 剩下兩個人, 當中一個賭徒桌面上只有剩下六百萬, 另一個尚有兩千萬, 有兩千萬的傢伙把桌上的兩千萬全推上去喊梭了, 那一個只有六百萬的沒有那麼多錢...., 無法跟進, 那誰贏了這一把??
 

Record ID: 1537427160R001   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:郭芙, on Sep/20/2018    15:12:11 (IP code: X.X.165.214)
 有六百万的当然可以跟,不过输赢是六百万而已 

Record ID: 1537427160R002   From: 美國

回信 發言人:BMIC轉貼自NYTimes, on Sep/20/2018    15:16:38 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling.

BEIJING — President Trump imposed tariffs in July on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China matched them dollar for dollar with its own.

Then he hit an additional $16 billion in goods in August. China matched that, too.

Now, Mr. Trump has made his biggest move yet, announcing 10 percent tariffs starting in a week on $200 billion a year of Chinese goods. But this time, China can’t match them all — and that crystallizes a growing problem for Beijing.

On Tuesday, Chinese officials responded to the president’s latest move by following through on an earlier threat to impose tariffs on $60 billion in American goods — nearly everything China buys from the United States.

China’s responses have so far failed to thwart Mr. Trump’s trade offensive, and with the White House amping up the fight again, Chinese leaders aren’t sure how to respond, people briefed on economic policymaking discussions say.



Chinese officials “are generally confused,” said Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda, a trade specialist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has been traveling around China speaking with officials, businesspeople and workers.

“They don’t know what to do,” he added. “They worry that the tit-for-tat model is playing into Trump’s hands.”

China does not import nearly enough from the United States to target $200 billion in American goods — let alone the additional $267 billion in Chinese goods that Mr. Trump has threatened to tax.


But China’s leaders feel they cannot back down. They have presented the trade war as part of a broader effort by the United States to contain China’s rise.



Mr. Trump has said as much, and did so again at a news conference on Tuesday. “China has been taking advantage of the United States for a long time, and that’s not happening anymore,” he said.

The Chinese public could see any effort to soothe tensions as capitulation. Some hard-liners want a more aggressive stance.

Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position.

Chinese officials know what they don’t want to do. They have rejected one idea that would replace the matching tariffs with a more sophisticated system, said the people briefed on the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the fragility of the deliberations. That response — discussed in detail within the Commerce Ministry and other agencies — would have led to lower tariffs on American goods in dollar terms, which could be seen as a fig leaf to the White House.

That approach would have recognized a potentially expensive new reality for Beijing: The tariffs may be here to stay. Mr. Trump is suffering from weak approval ratings and could lose influence in congressional elections in November. Democrats have opposed most of his agenda, but many have supported his attacks on trade with China. Even if Mr. Trump leaves office in two years, there is little guarantee that his China trade policies will be changed.

In Beijing, proponents of the new approach, which would scale down China’s tariffs in dollar terms to reflect the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries, say Chinese leaders could still revisit the idea because it offers them a way to contain the damage and soothe tensions.


Imported cars at the port in Qingdao, China. Some of Beijing’s options beyond tariffs could cause China pain, eliminating jobs and damaging its reputation as a place to do business.CreditReuters
China’s leaders “don’t really want to engage in a dollar-for-dollar retaliation,” said Yu Yongding, a prominent economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Their purpose is to stop this trade war.”


China’s other options are limited.

It could punish American businesses that depend on China. Already, its antitrust officials have effectively killed the $44 billion effort by Qualcomm, the semiconductor company, to buy a Dutch chip maker. China has also pledged to buy soybeans from other countries, but replacing voluminous American supplies will be difficult.

Other moves have already served as warnings, like delays at Chinese ports. Ford Motor’s Lincoln cars and other goods have sometimes been the subject of unusually lengthy customs inspections this summer, although the delays do not appear to have caused much financial harm.

“It is certain that China will have other, invisible retaliation against the United States,” said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Commerce Ministry’s policy research and training academy.

But more drastic moves, like closing factories or encouraging consumer boycotts of American goods, could eliminate Chinese jobs. They could also permanently damage China’s reputation as a place to do business and only accelerate corporate plans to look to other countries.

“It’s difficult to build a reputation, and easy to harm a reputation,” Mr. Mei said.

China could also guide its currency to a weaker level against the dollar. It has already nudged the currency a bit lower, making Chinese goods cheaper in the United States and partly offsetting the tariffs. But a weaker currency would make China’s imports more expensive, raise the risk of inflation and lead to a potentially damaging flight of money out of the country. It could also provoke further American retaliation.

The trade war has hit only a small part of the Chinese economy for now, but the damage could add up. Higher tariffs on American goods raise the cost of essential imports like soybeans and microchips. China still derives a big chunk of growth from making smartphones, clothing, chemicals and a raft of other goods and selling them to Americans.

The All-New DealBook
Our columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin and his Times colleagues help you make sense of major business and policy headlines — and the power-brokers who shape them.



How Trump’s Trade War Went From 18 Products to 10,000
The battle began when the United States imposed tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. It has led to a global tit-for-tat targeting billions of dollars of goods.

July 11, 2018
Already its currency and stock market have weakened as the trade war has intensified. China has taken steps to shore up its economy, but they could take months or years to kick in.

China has offered small concessions to the United States, like lowering its tariffs on imported cars from everywhere to 15 percent, from 25 percent; the United States, however, charges 2.5 percent. China has also allowed foreign companies to own greater shares of Chinese insurers, banks, asset management companies and car factories.

The new plan that Chinese officials rejected in recent weeks could have been more warmly greeted by the White House.

Under that plan, the United States and China would each levy tariffs based on proportions of trade rather than dollar amounts, people familiar with the discussions said. Because the United States imports nearly four times as much from China as it exports, that would lead to tariffs at different values.

For example, the United States has already levied tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, one-tenth of what it imports from China. Instead of matching that with tariffs on $50 billion in American-made goods, China would levy tariffs on one-tenth of such goods, totaling $13 billion to $15 billion, depending on the details.

Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them.


“The United States wants to hurt China by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports,” Mr. Yu, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist, wrote in a journal in July. “In the end, it may be the United States itself” that is hurt, he wrote.

But other Chinese trade experts say tariffs on equal fractions of trade would be too big a compromise.

“It’s unrealistic, it’s difficult in practice, it’s not doable, and it’s against basic trade rules,” said Mr. Mei, the Commerce Ministry researcher.
 

Record ID: 1537427160R003   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:BMIC, on Sep/20/2018    15:19:12 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 郭芙

勞力
 

Record ID: 1537427160R004   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:BMIC 轉貼洋蔥文, on Sep/20/2018    15:23:40 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 貿易戰升級,中國手中籌碼不足?
KEITH BRADSHER
2018年9月19日
DAVE KAUP/REUTERS
北京——川普總統在7月份開始對價值340億美元的中國商品加徵關稅。中國對同等價值的美國商品加徵了關稅。
後來,川普在8月份又把價值160億美元的中國商品包括了進來。中國也做出了同等回應。
現在,川普拿出了他迄今為止規模最大的舉措,宣布在一週內開始對美國每年從中國進口的價值2000億美元的中國商品加徵10%的關稅。但這次,中國無法做出完全對等的回應,這突顯了北京面臨的一個日益嚴重的問題。
週二,中國官員回應了川普總統近期採取的行動,他們兌現之前的威脅,對價值600億美元的美國商品加徵關稅——這幾乎是中國從美國購買的全部商品。
廣告

中國的回應迄今為止未能阻撓川普的貿易攻勢,據了解制定經濟政策討論的人士說,隨著白宮再次加大打擊力度,中國領導人對如何回應有些拿不準。
中國的官員們「普遍有些迷茫」,美國加州大學洛杉磯分校的貿易專家勞爾·伊諾霍薩-奧赫達(Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda)說。
中國淮北一名工廠工人正在製作用於出口的襪子。
中國淮北一名工廠工人正在製作用於出口的襪子。 AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
「他們不知道該怎麼辦,」他還說。「他們擔心,針鋒相對的做法正中了川普的下懷。」
中國從美國進口的商品遠遠達不到針對2000億美元的等價商品加徵關稅的規模——更不用說川普進一步威脅徵收關稅的2670億美元等價商品了。
但中國領導人覺得他們不能讓步。他們已把這場貿易戰作為美國遏制中國崛起的更廣泛努力的一部分。
川普在週二的新聞發布會上再次表示:「中國長期以來一直在佔美國的便宜,這種情況不會再發生了。」他此前曾多次表達類似觀點。
中國公眾可能會把任何緩和緊張局勢的舉措視為投降。
2016年卸任中國財政部長、現在仍是中國社會保障基金負責人的樓繼偉在週日表示,中國可以通過停止出口大部分由中國製造的關鍵零部件,有意擾亂美國企業的供應鏈。但中國的貿易專家們認為這種想法不切實際,也不是政府的立場。
中國官員知道他們不想做的是什麼。據知情人士說,官員們已經否決了用一個更複雜的系統來取代對同等價值商品加徵關稅的方法,由於有關討論的敏感性,這些知情人士要求不具名。商務部和其他機構曾在內部對該想法進行過詳細的討論,這種回應將會降低以美元計算的對美國商品徵稅額,在白宮眼裡這可能被視為一種遮羞布。
中國青島的進口汽車。
中國青島的進口汽車。 REUTERS
這樣做會表明,北京承認了一個可能代價高昂的新現實:關稅一時半不會取消。川普的支持率很低,可能會失去在今年11月的國會選舉中的影響力。雖然民主黨人反對川普的大部分議程,但許多人支持他在對華貿易上採取的攻勢。即使川普兩年後不連任,也很難保證繼任者將改變川普的對華貿易政策。
新思路會降低以美元計的中國關稅,以反映中美貿易的不平衡。在北京,新思路的支持者表示中國領導人仍可能會重新考慮這種做法,因為他們可以藉此控制損失、緩和緊張局勢。
廣告

中國領導人「不是真的想用一美元對一美元的方式進行報復」,中國社會科學院著名經濟學家余永定說。「他們的目標是停止這場貿易戰。」
中國沒有太多別的選擇。
中國可能會懲罰依賴中國的美國企業。中國的反壟斷官員實際上已經阻止了半導體公司高通(Qualcomm)花440億美元收購一家荷蘭晶片製造商的努力。中國還承諾從其他國家購買大豆,但全面取代規模巨大的美國大豆供應將很困難。
其他比如中國港口拖時間的做法已經起到了警告的作用。今年夏天,福特汽車公司的林肯轎車和其他產品有時會受到異常緩慢的海關檢查,儘管這些拖延似乎並未造成多少經濟損失。
「中國肯定會對美國採取其他的隱形報復,」商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院研究員梅新育說。
但採取比如關閉工廠、或鼓勵消費者抵制美國商品等更激烈的做法,可能會減少中國的就業崗位。這些做法也可能會永久性地損害中國作為經商地的聲譽,並且只會加速企業將目光投向其他國家的打算。
廣告

「建立聲譽很困難,損壞聲譽很容易,」梅新育說。
中國還可能把人民幣引導到與美元相比更弱的水平。中國已在逐漸壓低人民幣的價值,使中國商品在美國更便宜,並部分地抵消關稅的影響。但人民幣走軟將使中國進口商品的價格更高,增加通貨膨脹的風險,並導致可能造成破壞性影響的資金外逃。讓人民幣貶值的做法也可能引發美國的進一步報復。
雖然貿易戰目前只對中國經濟的一小部分造成了打擊,但這種損害可能會積少成多。對美國商品徵收更高的關稅提高了大豆和微晶片等重要進口產品的成本。中國經濟增長的一大部分仍靠製造智慧型手機、服裝、化學品和大量其他商品,然後將這些商品賣給美國人。
隨著貿易戰的加劇,中國的貨幣和股市已在走弱。中國已採取措施支撐經濟,但這些措施可能需要數月或數年的時間才能見效。
中國已向美國做出了一些小小的讓步,比如降低了來自世界各地的進口汽車的關稅,從25%降至15%;但美國對進口汽車只收2.5%的關稅。中國還已允許外國企業在中國保險公司、銀行、資產管理公司和汽車廠中持有更多的股份。
中國官員在最近幾週裡拒絕的這個新方案,本可能會受到白宮的更大歡迎。
廣告

知情人士說,按照該方案,美國和中國將按同等比例的貿易額、而不是同等美元的貿易額來徵收關稅。因為美國從中國的進口額幾乎是向中國的出口額的四倍,這將導致徵收關稅的商品價值不等。
比如,美國已對從中國進口商品的10%徵收關稅,價值500億美元。如果中國對其從美國進口商品的10%,而不是500億美元的等值美國製造商品徵收關稅的話,受關稅影響的美國商品額將在130億至150億美元之間,視具體情況而定。
支持該方案的人說,讓華盛頓比北京徵收更多的關稅,實際上會對美國造成更大的傷害,因為關稅最終是由徵收關稅國家的消費者和企業支付的。
「美國想通過對中國出口產品加徵關稅打痛中國,」中國社會科學院經濟學家余永定今年7月在雜誌上發文章寫道。「到頭來,被打痛可能是美國自己。」
但也有一些中國貿易專家說,對同等比例的貿易額加徵關稅將是一個太大的妥協。
「這不現實,做起來有困難,不可行,而且違反了基本的貿易規則,」商務部的研究員梅新育說。
Keith Bradsher是《紐約時報》上海分社社長,此前還曾任香港分社社長及底特律分社社長。他報導國際貿易問題,1990年代早期作為時報駐華盛頓記者期間,對世貿組織及《北美自由貿易協定》的創建進行了報導。歡迎在Twitter上關注他 @KeithBradsher。

 

Record ID: 1537427160R005   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:挖地雷, on Sep/20/2018    15:24:12 (IP code: X.X.179.119)
   那一千四百萬就…………悉聽尊便啦~~~~ 

Record ID: 1537427160R006   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:BMIC 轉貼, on Sep/20/2018    15:26:30 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
  President Trump imposed tariffs in July on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China matched them dollar for dollar with its own.

Then he hit an additional $16 billion in goods in August. China matched that, too.

Now, Mr. Trump has made his biggest move yet, announcing 10 percent tariffs starting in a week on $200 billion a year of Chinese goods. But this time, China can’t match them all — and that crystallizes a growing problem for Beijing.


川普總統在7月份開始對價值340億美元的中國商品加徵關稅。中國對同等價值的美國商品加徵了關稅。
後來,川普在8月份又把價值160億美元的中國商品包括了進來。中國也做出了同等回應。
現在,川普拿出了他迄今為止規模最大的舉措,宣布在一週內開始對美國每年從中國進口的價值2000億美元的中國商品加徵10%的關稅。但這次,中國無法做出完全對等的回應,這突顯了北京面臨的一個日益嚴重的問題。
週二,中國官員回應了川普總統近期採取的行動,他們兌現之前的威脅,對價值600億美元的美國商品加徵關稅——這幾乎是中國從美國購買的全部商品。
 

Record ID: 1537427160R007   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:BMIC, on Sep/20/2018    15:27:36 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 >>>> 那一千四百萬就…………悉聽尊便啦~~~~

中國說奉陪到底!!
 

Record ID: 1537427160R008   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:木杵, on Sep/20/2018    15:31:30 (IP code: X.X.143.172)
 面對美國明知道無力反擊卻不敢示軟

這是支那對內教育自食惡果,仇美,仇日,侵台是支那的日常教育。
 

Record ID: 1537427160R009   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:BMIC, on Sep/20/2018    15:34:32 (IP code: X.X.213.113)
 >>>> 他們兌現之前的威脅,對價值600億美元的美國商品加徵關稅——這幾乎是中國從美國購買的全部商品。

人家最終要課徵2000億的25% (約五百億關稅)

你可以報復說你從美國進口的六百億要課徵80%, 這樣也可課稅接近五百億

加油! 中國, 米國是紙老虎
 

Record ID: 1537427160R010   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:木杵, on Sep/20/2018    15:34:32 (IP code: X.X.143.172)
 >>仇美,仇日,侵台是支那的日常教育。

這也是無可奈何,為了轉移內部矛盾,

不過接下來支那就可憐了
 

Record ID: 1537427160R011   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:郭芙, on Sep/20/2018    15:35:46 (IP code: X.X.165.214)
 呵呵,在这儿等着呢。贸易战和扑克的规矩可不一样。  

Record ID: 1537427160R012   From: 美國

回信 發言人:木杵, on Sep/20/2018    15:37:01 (IP code: X.X.143.172)
 >>你可以報復說你從美國進口的六百億要課徵80%, 這樣也可課稅接近五百億

這不是要支那自殘?連內需都廢了。
 

Record ID: 1537427160R013   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:木杵, on Sep/20/2018    15:39:42 (IP code: X.X.143.172)
 郭芙

你說說看清支那有什麼不需要進口能自給自足的?
 

Record ID: 1537427160R014   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:西林, on Sep/20/2018    16:56:27 (IP code: X.X.57.246)
 會打撲克的是鄧小平

中美之局是他賣力賣笑設的

習近平更像是 a bull in a china shop
 

Record ID: 1537427160R015   From: 美國

回信 發言人:我見, on Sep/20/2018    17:22:54 (IP code: X.X.197.47)
 玩梭哈賭局其實有一個原則~誰的籌碼多自然贏面就大

當然,你籌碼少還是可以虛張聲勢嚇唬對方

但是,想偷雞也得禁得起蝕把米

這盤賭局目前看來,支那共產黨肯定輸到脫褲子下台
 

Record ID: 1537427160R016   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:笑看, on Sep/20/2018    17:45:01 (IP code: X.X.165.120)
 
輕量級一拳600磅VS重量級一拳2000磅

目前雙方各使出自己10%勁道滴熱身賽

不知支國能否撐到使出100%滴勁道?

^^
 

Record ID: 1537427160R017   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:笑看, on Sep/20/2018    17:52:25 (IP code: X.X.165.120)
 
日本以前好像就是受柳美國一記100%勁道滴重拳,重傷柳好幾十年。

^^
 

Record ID: 1537427160R018   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:Cobra, on Sep/20/2018    18:59:28 (IP code: X.X.3.47)
 喔呵呵.. 肥來囉~
關於賭博的問題嘛, 當然要請教盈助兄.
 

Record ID: 1537427160R019   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:艾弓巧虧, on Sep/20/2018    19:24:19 (IP code: X.X.241.49)
 借錢跟賭也是一個選擇。反正債多不愁唄。 

Record ID: 1537427160R020   From: 美國

回信 發言人:統派台灣民眾, on Sep/20/2018    19:56:46 (IP code: X.X.69.121)
 嗯!支那課徵美國貨物用80趴關稅是很有可能的.....

比如菜瓜布的本錢大概只要八毛錢就能做出來.賣個八塊錢甚至20快錢都沒有人在叫....

同樣道理一支毛筆本錢大概也不到五毛錢.老蔣應是要台灣學生給中國共匪買一支都幾十元上百元的!!!

野沒看到台灣人有出幾個張大千??
 

Record ID: 1537427160R021   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:L, on Sep/20/2018    20:08:03 (IP code: X.X.139.168)
 >仇美,仇日,侵台是支那的日常教育。

這是很奇怪的事情。

乞丐対施捨者都是一種仇恨。

49族國民黨,対養活他們70年的台灣人民,要聯合共產中國統一台灣。

共產中國對幫助他們的台灣日本美國喊殺喊打。但是對400年來吞食他們國土的蘇俄卻是搖尾巴。
 

Record ID: 1537427160R022   From: 美國

回信 發言人:新游泳池不能用, on Sep/20/2018    23:29:58 (IP code: X.X.137.76)
 大哥

我贊助了
你去走走

 

Record ID: 1537427160R023   From: 美國

回信 發言人:泰伯, on Sep/20/2018    23:37:29 (IP code: X.X.189.166)
 久未見舅公,甚念。 

Record ID: 1537427160R024   From: 美國

回信 發言人:新游泳池不能用, on Sep/21/2018    00:34:10 (IP code: X.X.137.76)
 大哥

我這次回去沒能搭到阿里山火車
現在重開了,去坐坐?
 

Record ID: 1537427160R025   From: 美國

回信 發言人:BMIC, on Sep/21/2018    13:24:10 (IP code: X.X.229.216)
 回來快三星期了

是高鐵常客
 

Record ID: 1537427160R026   From: 台灣

本篇到此告一段落———版主

WE ARE 49ER TAIWANESE